By Kiberenge Jnr
I highly consider that Musalia Mudavadi was a possible deep state 2022 compromise candidate until he knocked himself out by warming to Ruto who the system has already marked as an enemy, effectively replacing Raila. Going by history, it is not a secret that the deep state determines who becomes President, regardless of the number of votes. Actually, voting is just a formality. A single vote of the system , in our election format, is more important than 19m mass votes. It is the single vote of the system that Raila has never had and that is why they have consistently denied him his victory. Some body will argue (and I have frequently heard this argument) that “but Kibaki won against the system in 2002 and became President”. Very true. But supposing it was Raila or any other person who had won, would they have handed to him? The answer is NO. It simply means Kibaki was an option for the system, but those who supported him did not know. Indeed, soon after ascending to the Presidency, Kibaki discarded all those who supported him plus the ideas of reform as agreed and played by the dictates of the deep state. I want to believe, and rightly so, that Raila has finally managed to rop the deep state into his fold, at least going by the way things are playing out. The deep state is the only vote he never had. Time will correct me on this.
Now back to the Ruto/Musalia ticket (Incase it morphosed from a rumour to reality) in the prevailing circumstances. First, such an arrangement is doomed in terms of numbers, even though numbers don’t really count in Kenya politics. In a scenario where Ruto is the Presidential candidate and Musalia his running mate, and with Raila on the ballot paper, then majority of voters in Western region will vote for Raila to the last man. It will be simply a repeat of 2002 when Musalia went against the tide by turning out as Uhuru’s running mate. Kijana Wamalwa/Raila axis marshalled the luhya vote towards Kibaki against Uhuru. Musalia lost his Parliamentary seat in the process. It was a lethal protest vote.
I don’t foresee a scenario where Ruto can support Musalia for the Presidency given that the constitution bars him from running for the Deputy Presidency again after the expiry of his two terms. He can only contest the Presidency or any other position, but not the Deputy Presidency. Perhaps it is too early to conclude here until the BBI proposals are unveilled and passed.
Even if they garner the numbers, while Ruto has bitterly fallen out with the deep state, it would be futile, so to speak. It would be actually repeating what Raila has been doing in successive elections. The deep state will not hand over power to a Ruto side, whatever the cost.
Now the question arises: Are we luhyas ready to continue a sojourn in the opposition under Ruto/Mudavadi after having done so under Raila for a decade or so? The answer is NO.
If Raila has delt with the obstacle (deep state) and is closer to inching the Presidency, then should we abandon a journey we are about to complete? Why should we go back to experimenting, scavanging and chasing shadows?
And by the way, the Biblical journey to Canaan lasted 40 years. From 1982 to date is 38 years. We have two more years. Meaning 2022 is our 40th year.
Enjoy your week ahead RUTO/MUDAVADI TICKET